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April 1, 2024

Rise of Oil Prices: A $1 Rise per Barrel Driven by Supply Constraints

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Oil prices surged by more than $1 per barrel in Doha, Qatar on Thursday, marking a monthly increase driven by expectations of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, ongoing attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and a decline in the US rig count leading to tighter crude supplies.

The settlement for Brent crude futures in May stood at $87.48 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed at $83.17 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI saw gains of 2.4% and 3.2% respectively over the week, extending their upward trend for the third consecutive month. However, oil prices faced pressure earlier due to an unexpected rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories attributed to increased crude imports and subdued gasoline demand.

Additionally, the US economy exhibited stronger growth than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, with the gross domestic product growing at a 3.4% annualized rate according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

On the LNG front, Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices remained relatively stable, maintaining a six-week high amid growing spot demand in Southeast Asia and Europe. Prices for May delivery into northeast Asia rose slightly to $9.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), with some hesitation from buyers as prices approached $10/mmBtu. Weather forecasts in Southeast China indicated higher temperatures, potentially boosting early power sector cooling demand.

Market dynamics also saw US LNG suppliers directing shipments to Europe due to longer shipping distances, despite slightly higher spot prices in Asia compared to Europe. In Europe, gas prices fluctuated between $8-$9 per mmBtu amidst ample storage inventories and milder weather forecasts.

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